Transition Theories Various transition evaluation theories have been put forward by scholars in the field to explain the outcome of transitions. Over time two main sets of theories have developed; the bottom-up approaches and the top-down approach. Bunce (2003) argues that mass mobilization plays a crucial role in regime outcomes among post-communist states. Georgia and Ukraine illustrate cases where popular mobilization had an impact on regime structure. We can see that civil society and mass mobilization are a crucial factor in determining how stable an authoritarian regime is, as we can see in the events in Ukraine, Georgia and Kyrgyzstan. Way (2008) argues that the top-down structural factor of the regime is a decisive factor in determining whether an authoritarian regime remains in power or not. Way means that the strength of the state's coercion/security apparatus is a vital factor as it can repress mass mobilization that could threaten the regime's resilience. According to Bunce and Wolchik (2006) the wave of color revolutions that spread across the post-communist region spread across states and mass mobilization was occurring in a number of states. They argue that this phenomenon has failed to spread in some states due to the absence/very limited number of national actors supporting the cause and the rapid authoritarian reactions of regimes in states such as Kazakhstan, where student salaries have been increased to prevent a similar situation in Kazakhstan (Bunce and Wolchik, 2006). They also argue that relations with other power actors in the international sphere and the economic self-sustainability of the state in question. Jones Luong (2002) highlights the impact of negotiation uncertainty and power shifts du...... half of the paper ...... previously mentioned, influence the density of the link between the West and the state in question. As highlighted in the previous section, Kazakhstan has favored Russia regarding trade and political alignment. This has its roots in the Soviet legacy and reluctance towards independence experienced in Kazakhstan after the dissolution of the Union (Gill, 2002). The political line adopted was therefore to enhance the Soviet legacy and relations with Russia without too many uncertainties. This has led to weak ties with the West, meaning the connection remains low and therefore the influence for democratization. What the connection looks like depends very much on the internal structures that enable or disable the connection with the West; these factors will be discussed in more depth in the section dedicated to the internal dimension. Stable authoritarian government in Turkmenistan.